Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP)

The COVID-19 adaptive risk predictor (SCARP) is a tool that calculates the 1-day and 7-day risk of progression to severe disease or death for adult patients (18 years and older) who are hospitalized with COVID-19. To use SCARP, enter the information for the patient below. Inputs for the clinical predictors will be entered sequentially (additional boxes will appear as you enter information). The sequential inputs are determined adaptively based on the information entered in order to tailor the calculator to the individual patient. The 1-day and 7-day risk predictions will be provided along with the visual displays of summary decision trees which can be viewed at each step under the prediction logic tabs.

*Cross-Validated Calibration

Beneath the risk predictions, the cross-validated calibration for the predicted risk is shown along with the number of unique patients used to determine the calibration performance. The observed progressions to severe disease or death under the next day and next week risks correspond to the ranges of the percentage of patients observed to progress to severe disease or death in the next day or week, respectively for the 500 person-time observations closest to the predicted probability at each of the 5 hospitals used for cross-validation.

Clinical predictors

Enter the supplemental oxygen and pulse oximetry recorded at the most hypoxic moment in the past 6 hours

SCARP is an algorithmic tool ("Algorithm") developed by faculty at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health using data from five hospital sites within the Johns Hopkins Health System. SCARP was created using data from 3,163 patients admitted between March 5 - December 4, 2020. The Algorithm is not an FDA-registered clinical decision support tool and has not been reviewed or approved for any use-including diagnosis or treatment of disease or other conditions, including COVID-19-by the FDA. The Johns Hopkins University and the Johns Hopkins Health System, Inc. (collectively, "Johns Hopkins") are making the Algorithm publicly available for academic and research use only. The Algorithm does not replace the independent clinical judgment of healthcare professionals or the performance of any clinical assessment. The Algorithm is not intended for the diagnosis or treatment of any disease or condition, including COVID-19 in individual patients. Johns Hopkins hereby disclaims any and all representations and warranties regarding the Algorithm, including warranties of fitness for use in clinical decision making and warranties that the Algorithm works as intended, is clinically safe, does not infringe third party intellectual property rights, and/or is free from defects and bugs.