Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP)
The COVID-19 adaptive risk predictor (SCARP) is a tool that calculates the 1-day and 7-day risk of progression to severe disease or death for adult patients (18 years and older) who are hospitalized with COVID-19. To use SCARP, enter the information for the patient below. Inputs for the clinical predictors will be entered sequentially (additional boxes will appear as you enter information). The sequential inputs are determined adaptively based on the information entered in order to tailor the calculator to the individual patient. The 1-day and 7-day risk predictions will be provided along with the visual displays of summary decision trees which can be viewed at each step under the prediction logic tabs.
Beneath the risk predictions, the cross-validated calibration for the predicted risk is shown along with the number of unique patients used to determine the calibration performance. The observed progressions to severe disease or death under the next day and next week risks correspond to the ranges of the percentage of patients observed to progress to severe disease or death in the next day or week, respectively for the 500 person-time observations closest to the predicted probability at each of the 5 hospitals used for cross-validation.
Enter the supplemental oxygen and pulse oximetry recorded at the most hypoxic moment in the past 6 hours